Revising Return Periods for Record Events in a Climate Event Attribution Context
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Attribution of Weather and Climate-Related Extreme Events
Unusual or extreme weather and climate-related events are of great public concern and interest, yet there are often conflicting messages from scientists about whether such events can be linked to climate change. There is clear evidence that climate has changed as a result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, and that across the globe some aspects of extremes have changed as a result. But ...
متن کاملAttribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events
Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced c...
متن کاملOn Estimating Hurricane Return Periods
Interest in hurricane risk usually focuses on landfalling events of the highest intensity, which cause a disproportionate amount of hurricane-related damage. Yet assessing the long-term risk of the most intense landfalling events is problematic because there are comparatively few of them in the historical record. For this reason, return periods of the most intense storms are usually estimated b...
متن کاملS ep 2 00 5 Distribution of Return Periods of Rare Events in Correlated Time Series
We study the effect on the distribution of return periods of rare events of the presence in a time series of finite-term correlations with non-exponential decay. Precisely, we analyze the auto-correlation function and the statistics of the return intervals of extreme values of the resistance fluctuations displayed by a resistor with granular structure in a nonequilibrium stationary state. The r...
متن کاملDADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events
We describe a new approach that allows for systematic causal attribution of weather and climate-related events, in near-real time. The method is designed so as to facilitate its implementation at meteorological centers by relying on data and methods that are routinely available when numerically forecasting the weather. We thus show that causal attribution can be obtained as a by-product of data...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Climate
سال: 2018
ISSN: 0894-8755,1520-0442
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-16-0752.1